Supervision in the Hospitality Industry- AHLEI Practice Test

When using a base adjustment approach to forecasting sales, what should Jennifer consider for seasonality?

1. A. Average data over one seasonal cycle

2. B. Use data from the same period in the previous year

3. C. Use a forecasted figure from a previous period and adjust it

4. D. Adopt a different forecasting method

The correct answer is: B. Use data from the same period in the previous year

When forecasting sales using a base adjustment approach, considering seasonality is crucial because it helps provide a clearer picture of trends and patterns that can influence future sales figures. Opting to use data from the same period in the previous year allows Jennifer to effectively account for seasonal variations that are inherent to the business cycles in the hospitality industry. Seasonal patterns, such as increases in sales during holidays or peak tourist seasons, can significantly impact overall performance, making it imperative to compare similar timeframes for accuracy. This method provides a practical framework for identifying expected sales fluctuations rather than relying solely on average data or prior forecasts, which may not fully capture the nuances of seasonal demand waves. By evaluating the same period from the previous year, Jennifer can adjust her forecasts in a way that acknowledges those seasonal peaks and troughs, leading to better-informed strategic planning and operational decisions.